How New Jersey mortgage denials held steady through the rate shock
Rates went from record lows to 20-year highs between 2020 and 2022. New Jersey purchase approval rates barely moved — volume did the moving.
Between 2020 and 2022, U.S. mortgage rates went from historic lows to their highest in two decades. You might expect approval rates to swing with them. In New Jersey home-purchase lending, they barely moved.
| Year | Home-purchase decisions | Approval rate | Denial rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 109,319 | 89.6% | 10.4% |
| 2019 | 110,623 | 90.3% | 9.7% |
| 2020 | 127,132 | 90.1% | 9.9% |
| 2021 | 139,389 | 91.2% | 8.8% |
| 2022 | 107,827 | 89.8% | 10.2% |
| 2023 | 79,201 | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| 2024 | 78,718 | 90.3% | 9.7% |
| 2025 | 77,585 | 90.7% | 9.3% |
The volume tells the real story of the shock: purchase activity peaked in 2021 (139,389 decisions) and fell to 77,585 by 2025 as rates climbed and affordability collapsed. But the share of applicants approved stayed remarkably stable throughout. Lenders didn’t suddenly tighten the gate — there were simply fewer buyers walking up to it. That stability is worth remembering the next time someone claims it’s “impossible” to get approved: the odds for a given applicant moved far less than the headlines did.
See the current picture in the county-by-county data, or check your own odds.
Check it against your own situation
Every figure here is from the federal record — and free to download.
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